胶州湾地区居民对气候变化的感知与适应研究

The perception and responses of climate change in Jiaozhou Bay area

海岸带地区是全球气候变化的"敏感区"和"脆弱带",未来可能面临更高的气候变化风险,在海岸带地区开展气候变化适应举措更具现实性和紧迫性。本研究基于"感知-适应"分析框架,以胶州湾地区居民为研究对象,采用问卷调查数据,结合气象观测数据,分析了该地区1980-2010年气候变化及极端气候事件变化的事实、当地居民的感知及其与气候变化事实的偏差;在此基础上,进一步分析气候变化感知与适应之间的关系。分析表明胶州湾地区近30年气温显著上升,降水变幅增大,极端气候事件发生频率增加。当地居民对气候变化有较高的认知度,但对具体气候要素的感知与实际变化存在一定的偏差。考虑到参考时段的关系,居民对极端事件的感知与事实一致性程度较高。居民对气候变化的感知与适应存在较好的对应关系,但对极端气候事件的感知与适应措施的应用程度表现为负相关关系。总体而言,胶州湾地区气候变化适应措施的采用程度不高,适应措施的采用比例和适应措施的多样化程度仍有提升空间。

The coastal transition zone is a sensitive and vulnerable area to climatic and environmental change, and combined with disturbance from human activities could face a higher risk of climate change impacts in furore. Climate change adaptation is critical in vulnerable areas. Based on the perception-adaptation-analysis framework and taking the Jiaozhou Bay area, China as a case study, we combined questionnaire and meteorological data to analyze climate change and extreme events over the last 30 years. Drought, torrential rain, high temperature, the deviation between perceptions and fact, and the relationship between perception and adaptation were analyzed. We found that nearly 30 years ago the temperature increased rapidly, higher than the national average warming rate; precipitation increased in amplitude and extreme weather events occurred frequently in Jiaozhou Bay. Residents have higher awareness to climate change, but the perception of specific climate factors and actual changes are different. Considering the influence of the reference period, the perception to extreme events is in high accordance with climate change. There is a good corresponding relationship between the perception of climate change and the adaptation to climate change, the perception of extreme weather events and climate adaptation are negatively correlated. In general, adaptation to climate change in the Jiaozhou Bay area remains unpopular and there are gaps in the application of popularity and diversification of adaptation measures.