通行政策导向下节假日出行结构动态演化博弈

Logit dynamic evolutionary game analysis of trip mode split caused by expressway toll-free policy

采用演化博弈理论的Logit动态机制建立出行方式选择的Logit动态模型,并进行了模型平衡点和演化稳定性分析以及参数分析,最后通过数值算例对比分析交通政策(包括公路收费、公路免费和公路扩建三种政策/措施)导向下的出行方式选择演化过程和演化稳定趋势.结果表明,出行方式选择的Logit动态演化系统存在唯一的演化稳定策略;交通政策/措施通过调整公路拥堵延误成本和调整出行方式固有成本差异来影响出行方式选择行为,并且后者比前者具有更显著的效果;高速公路免费通行政策既显著地达到了缓解铁路运力紧张的目的,同时兼顾了交通管理者和出行者的利益,但是可能造成高速公路交通拥堵;新政策的实施往往因为出行者的有限理性而表现出时滞效应.

This paper proposes a Logit dynamic evolutionary model of mode split on a bimodal network considering two travel modes：car and railway.Then static equilibrium,dynamic evolution trend and parameter analysis of the model are studied with the strict mathematical analysis.Finally,a numerical example is used to identify the mode split evolutionary routes and compare evolutionary stable strategies in three scenarios,including expressway toll policy,expressway toll-free policy and expressway extension.The result indicates that there is only one unique globally stable equilibrium state for the Logit dynamic evolutionary model of mode split.The adoption of traffic policies will affect the travel mode choice behavior by adjusting the congestion delay cost by car or the inherent cost difference between different modes,and the latter has a more significant effect than the former.The expressway toll-free policy has significant effect on rising the mode split by car,which can better reach the purpose of easing the capacity tension of railway.And it takes the interests of traffic managers and travelers into account at the same time.However,it may cause the highway traffic congestion.In addition,the implementation of the new policy often shows time lag effect due to the traveler＇s limited rationality.