城市规模与旅游成长空间关系、演变及驱动因子——长江三角洲城市级别体系新认识

Spatial Relation Between City Size and Tourism Growth, and Its Evolution and Driving Factors: New Understanding of City Level System in the Yangtze River Delta

以＂揭示规律、验证规律＂为研究逻辑起点,提出＂城市规模-旅游成长-城市级别＂数理空间分布模型及其时空演变模型,以长江三角洲地区城市体系为例,系统搜集1995-2014年系列基础数据,探讨城市规模与旅游成长的空间关系及其演变机理。结果表明：①20a来长三角地区城市规模、旅游成长、城市级别的数理空间分布呈三段＂金字塔＂式结构,城市级别越高,分布数量越少;②三元空间关系在演变中,1995-2009时期内的三阶段符合演变模型的A线关系趋向,2010-2014阶段呈＂核＂式分布,旅游对城市规模存在倒逼效应;③依据城市4个基本象限类分布,级别高的城市分布在Ⅰ类区,Ⅳ类区与Ⅱ、Ⅲ类区间存在单向转换与演变关系;④对驱动因子剖析,政府政策的倾斜、城市规模效应以及旅游的快速发展共同促成三元关系的演变格局。

On the basis of the geostatistical method and the Origin technology, the article sets up a mathematical model of spatial distribution of and a space-time process model of＂city size-tourism growth-city level＂on the basis of＂revelation and verification of regularity＂. A range of basic data of the year 1995-2014 about the urban system in Yangtze River Delta were collected to explore the spatial relations between city size and tourism growth, and the evolution mechanism. The research results showed that： 1） Since 20 years ago, the mathematical and spatial distributions of city size, tourism growth and city level have been demonstrated as three parts in the shape of pyramid, meaning that the higher city level, the less number of city distribution. And this feature is especially applicable to some big cities with flourishing economy and prosperous tourism. 2） In the ternary spatial relations, three stages during 1995-2009 behaved as the line＂A＂relations of the evolution model, and this feature is very typical like＂A＂line in the model. In 2010-2014, the relations graph was in the shape of an oval,indicating that tourism growth forced the expansion of city size. In order to achieve tourism economic benefits,cities has realized by way of increased infrastructure. This is also the embodiment of the economic development cycle feedback model. 3） Based on the distribution of cities in 4 basic quadrants, Quarter I is for cities have highest level. With the expansion of city size and the growing tourism, Quarter IV is related to Quarters II and III. 4） The pattern and evolution about the relationship between city size and tourism growth, is a system within three factors. The higher city level, the government has greater efforts with policy system, power allocation, financial support and resources allocation to accelerate the expansion of cities, and then city size effect has been obvious. The analysis of driving factors shows that support policies adopted by governments, city size and rapid tourism growth have jointly contributed to the evolution of the ternary relations.