基于多源信息挖掘的干旱预警分析模式探讨

Multi-source information mining-based discussion on mode of drought early warning analysis

从信息挖掘角度,探讨利用多源信息准确判断干旱预警等级及信号的方法,构建了基于多源信息挖掘的干旱预警模式,利用旱情监测信息建立干旱预警指标体系。从当前旱情严重程度、干旱发展趋势和潜在旱灾损失三个方面,采用逐层递进组合方法分析干旱预警指标,由此来确定干旱预警等级及信息。根据科学性、全面性和可操作性原则建立的干旱预警模式,综合考虑了旱情情势和变化,以及可能面临的旱灾损失,为干旱预警等级和信号的准确确定提供了有效的工具和手段。

From the prospect of information mining, the method for correct judgement of drought early warning grade and signal with multi-source information is discussed herein, and then a multi-source information-based drought early warning mode is con- structed, while a drought early warning system is established with the drought monitoring information as well. From the aspects of the current drought severity, drought trends and potential drought losses, the drought early warning indexes are analyzed with the layer upon layer progressive combined method, from which the drought early warning grade and information are determined. In accordance with the principle of scientificalness, comprehensiveness and operability, a drought early warning mode is estab- lished, which comprehensively considers the drought situation and variation as well as the drought losses to be faced with, thus provides an effective tool and means to accurately determine the drought early warning grade and signal.