公众天气预报服务满意度的影响因素——基于决策树的实证研究

On the Determinants of the Satisfaction with Public Weather Forecast:Analysis Based On Decision Tree of the Empirical Research

在全国范围内抽取11180个样本,对天气预报服务的满意度及其影响因素进行调查研究。结果发现,人们对天气预报服务的总体满意度较高。经决策树分析,在选取的15个可能的影响因素中,有7个因素对于天气预报服务满意度具有重要影响,依次是天气预警信号及时性、天气预警信号准确性、天气信息每日更新频次、未来三天天气预报准确性、天气预报用语的通俗性、24小时天气预报准确性、个人所在省份。要提高公众对于天气预报服务的满意度,进而提高公众对天气预报的关注度,就要保证天气预警的及时性,提高更新频率,并保证天气预警的准确性和未来三天天气预报的准确性。

Based on the 11180 questionnaires nationwide, the satisfaction of weather forecast service and its influencing factors were investigated. It was found that the overall satisfaction with weather forecasting services was high. According to the decision tree analysis,7 factors selected from 15 possible factors are proved being very important to public weather forecast satisfactions,which include the timeliness of weather warning signals,the accuracy of the weather warning signals,the timeliness of weather information,the accuracy of the next three days weather forecast,the popularity of weather forecast terms,the accuracy of 24-hour weather forecast and individual province. To improve the public's satisfaction with the weather forecast service and boost the public's attention to the weather forecast,it is necessary to ensure the timeliness of the weather warning,update frequency and ensure the accuracy of the weather warning and the weather forecast for the next three days.