基于模糊综合评价的海外矿业投资金融风险评价

Financial risk assessment of overseas mining investments based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

本文重点研究模糊综合评价法在海外矿业投资金融风险评价中的运用,对企业进行相关项目的风险识别、规避与控制具有重要参考价值。首先分析了海外矿业投资金融风险的特征并分析了风险成因,然后构建了两级风险评价指标体系和评判隶属矩阵,进行模糊运算后得到一级评价向量,进而借助归一化处理和二级模糊运算得到最终风险向量。以神华集团在澳大利亚的某矿业投资项目为例子进行分析计算,发现该项目总的金融风险指数为3.01,处于"较高风险"和"一般风险"之间。本文研究表明,模糊综合评价法对于海外矿业投资金融风险评价具有一定的推广应用价值。

This paper focuses on the application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the financial risk assessment of overseas mining investments,which has important reference value for risk identification,avoidance and control of related projects.This paper analyzes the characteristics of overseas mining investments and financial risk factors,and then builds the two risk evaluation index system.An evaluation matrix is constructed based on the index system,then the primary evaluation vector is generated using a fuzzy calculation.The ultimate risk vector is generated by a second fuzzy calculation with the normalization of the primary evaluation vector.A mining investment project in Australia by Shenhua Group is analyzed as an example,and the financial risk result is 3.01,which means a state between＂high risk＂and＂general risk＂.This paper shows that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method has a certain application value for the financial risk assessment of overseas mining investments.