山东省煤炭产业碳排放驱动因素通径分析

Path analysis on drive factors of carbon emissions for coal industry in Shandong province

以2005-2015年山东省煤炭产业有关统计数据为依据,首先运用spss21.0对能源消费结构、能源强度、人均生产总值、人口强度、企业规模和企业数量6个因素进行了相关性检验,然后利用通径分析的方法分析了四个具有相关性的因素对碳排放的直接效应和间接效应。最终结果表明:能源消费结构优化和企业规模扩大对煤炭产业碳排放量具有抑制作用,能源强度和企业数量因素对煤炭产业碳排放量具有推动作用;各个因素的直接通径系数与总通径系数差距较大,因素间的相互作用对碳排放的间接影响在总影响效果中具有不可忽视的地位。

According to statistics of coal industry in Shandong province from 2005 to 2014, the authors used SPSS 21.0 to conduct a correlation test among six factors： energy consumption structure, energy intensity, per capita gross value of production, population intensity, firm size and the number of enterprises. The four correlational factors, were analyzed by using path analy- sis method. The final results showed the energy consumption structure and enterprise size had re- straining effects on the carbon emission of the coal industry, the energy intensity and the number of enterprises had positive effects on the carbon emission of the coal industry. The direct path co- efficient had great differences from the total path coefficient of each factor, and the indirectly in teraction effects on carbon emissions had assignable role.