中国城市的资本存量估算和技术进步率:1992～2014年

An Estimation of the Capital Stock and Technological Progress Rates in Chinese Cities:1992～2014

本文通过改进永续盘存法,在相同的资本存量估算框架下对中国全国、省份和258个城市的资本存量和折旧率进行估计,并利用Cobb-Douglas生产函数和面板数据模型测算城市的技术进步率,从而考察省际和城市技术进步的变动情况。结论表明:(1)统一的估计框架保证了资本存量和折旧率估算的可靠性;(2)中国折旧率自2008年经济危机以后呈现下降趋势;(3)省际的技术进步水平有向中东部聚拢的趋势,但是技术进步增长率的差异不大;(4)主要城市的技术进步均保持了相对高于省份的效率,且省会城市没有表现出技术进步率上的优势,城市的技术进步率可能更多地来自于经济效率、地区间的交流和技术设施的建设等因素。

This paper estimated the national, provincial and urban capital stocks and depreciation rates in China under auniform framework by improving the perpetual inventory method. Besides, the current paper implemented Cobb-Douglas production function and panel data models to measuretechnological progress rates of Chinese cities,therefore investigated the provincial and urban technological changes.The results showed that:(1) A uniform estimation framework ensured reliability of the capital stock and depreciation rate estimations;(2) There was a decreasing trend of the depreciation rates in China since 2008;(3) Average provincial technological progresshad a convergent tendency to that of central and east areas in China, while the technological progress rates had little difference;(4) The technological progress of major cities maintained higher level than provincial average, and the potential technological advantages of provincial capitalsfailed to be found, indicating that urban technological progress may have closer relationship with the local economic efficiency, the interaction with peripheral regions and the investment on the technological and innovative constructions.