冷湖近59年气温变化趋势分析

Analysis on Nearly 59 Years Temperature Trends Lenghu

利用1957―2015年冷湖气象站的气温资料,采用线性气候倾向估计法、相关性检验分析、Mann-Kendall检验法,对冷湖年际、年代、季节、月份等不同时间尺度的气温变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:近59年来冷湖气温呈上升趋势;年平均与春、夏、秋、冬季平均气温变化趋势与柴达木盆地气温变化趋势研究结果一致,年平均与夏、秋、冬季平均气温增加趋势显著,春季不明显,冬季增加最多;7月平均气温最高,1月平均气温最低;年平均气温1990年之后升温显著,暖突变开始时间在1989年附近;春季升温趋势不显著,夏季2006年之后升温显著,秋季1999年之后升温显著,冬季1988年之后升温显著;暖突变开始的时间,冬季最早为1984年,秋季为1993年,夏季为1998年。

Using the temperature data of weather station of Lenghu in 1957 -2015, using the linear climate tendency estimation method, correlation analysis, Mann - Kendall test, Lenghu interannual, age, season, month of different time scales, such as temperature trends are analyzed. The results show that the recent 59 years Lenghu temperature rise; Average annual and spring, summer, autumn and winter average temperature trends is consistent with the temperature trends in the western Qaidam basin research results, average annual and summer, autumn, winter mean temperature increased significantly, the spring is not obvious, winter increased most; July is the highest temperature on average, the lowest average temperature in January, Average annual temperature in 1990 after rising significantly, warm mutations start time nearby in 1989; Spring warming trend was not significant, in the summer of 2006 after rising significantly, autumn warming significantly after 1999 ,the winter warming significantly after 1988; Warm the starting time of the mutation ,the earliest for winter in 1984 ,the autumn of 1993 ,the summer of 1998.