通辽市玉米春播期土壤水分预报模型

Spring sowing soil moisture forecast model of maize in Tongliao city

为指导农户提前采取相应的保墒、增墒措施,保证玉米适期播种和正常出苗,提高气象为农服务能力,试验应用通辽市8个旗县站气象观测资料和土壤水分监测数据,采用主成分分析法和多元回归方程建立玉米春播期土壤水分预报模型。结果表明:影响通辽市各地区玉米春播期土壤水分的气象条件大致相同,但略有差异。全市8个旗县站的预报模型总体准确率为78%,达到预期目标,模型拟合度较好。

To guide farmers in advance to take corresponding measures of increasing soil moisture and ensure proper sowing and normal seedling emergence of maize ,and improve the meteorological service capacity for agriculture, Tongliao city 8 counties station meteorological data and soil moisture monitoring data were applied to establish spring sowing maize soil moisture forecast model using principal component analysis and multiple regression equation. Results showed that the effect of meteorological conditions of soil moisture in spring sowing period of corn in each area of Tongliao city was roughly the same, but slightly different. The accuracy rate of 8 meteorological stations of the forecasting model overall was 78% and achieved the desired objectives, so the model fitting degree was better.