中国碳排放模型的进一步研究

Further Research on China's Carbon Emission Model

针对中国1990—2009年的能源消耗数据,利用线性回归模型的最小二乘估计理论和SAS统计软件建立了碳排放模型。通过分析可得:CO_2的排放量主要与煤炭和石油的消耗量有关,而与天然气、水电、核电和风电等新兴能源的消费没有显著性关系。现阶段我国应降低煤炭和石油的消耗量,更多地使用新兴能源。

According to the data of Chinese energy consumption from year 1990 to 2009,the model of carbon emissions was built by using the least squares estimation of the linear regression model and SAS statistical software. The analysis showed that CO2 emissions mainly related to coal and oil consumption,and didn＇ t have significant relationship with the consumption of natural gas,hydropower,nuclear power and wind power. At present,our country should reduce the consumption of coal and oil,more emerging energy should be used.