OECD国家结构性赤字的通胀效应研究

On the Inflationary Effects of Structural Deficit in OECD Members

本文结合当前世界经济"四低"形势和财政和货币政策的同向扩张,综合考虑财政政策和货币政策对通胀的影响。将结构性赤字与通胀率作为研究对象,采用协整检验方法、BVAR模型和门限协整检验方法,对结构性赤字与通胀率之间的关系进行研究。主要结论是:结构性赤字在多数国家中对通胀率产生显著正效应,影响通胀率的主要因素主要是结构性赤字,OECD国家是财政政策主导的非李嘉图制度。结构性赤字的通胀效应不是由经济增长引发的,而是债务货币化在推高物价水平的同时未能改变利率为零甚至负利率状况导致的。通胀率对长短期利率和经济增长率产生显著的正效应,对失业率、储蓄率、汇率产生显著负效应。结构性赤字与通胀率之间不存在门限效应,实证分析采用的线性回归方法和结果是可靠的。

Bin this paper we consider＂four low＂ trend of the world economy and expansion situation of economic policies, and analyze the impact between fiscal policy and monetary policy on inflation. The structural deficit and the inflation rate are seen as the main variables, and co-integration testing method, BVAR models and threshold co-integration adjustment are applied. The main conclusions are： Structural deficits in most OECD members have a significant positive effect on the inflation rate, it mainly affects the inflation rate and so OECD members are dominated by non-Rieardian regime. Inflationary effects of the structural deficit is not caused by the economic growth, but due to the fact that debt monetization increases the price level at the same time but does not change the zero or even negative interest rates. The inflation rate has a significant positive effect on the short and long interest rates and economic growth, yet yields negative effects among unemployment, savings rate, and exchange rate. There are no threshold effects between structural deficit and inflation, and we get reliable empirical results by linear regression in the process.