农业部门内的结构红利:基于增长和波动效应的研究

Structural Dividends in Agricultural Department: Based on the Research of Growth and Volatility Effects

笔者把农业部门内种植业、畜牧业和渔业的生产结构变迁分解为合理化和高级化两个方面,构建了关于新时期我国农业结构调整与农业增长和农业生产周期的模型,并对我国农业"结构红利"的存在做了实证研究。研究结果表明,在"快"增长效应方面,不管是农业部门内部的短期调整还是农业生产外延的长期扩张,均有利于农业增长潜力的释放;而在"稳"增长方面,农业结构的扭曲程度越高越不利于形成对农产品市场的平稳预期,如果不对农业结构扭曲做深度的调整,有理由预期未来我国农产品市场的周期震荡仍将持续甚至加剧;而农业结构的高级化有利于农业生产的稳定,这主要是由于高级化的过程内生于农产品市场的日益成熟和法律法规的完善,农业结构高级化的本质就是以市场来抗衡市场。因此,政府在制定农业发展战略时,应在强调农业各部门结构合理化的同时,推进农业结构的高级化,充分发挥农业结构红利对农业经济增长的持续推动作用。

This paper decomposes the changes of agricultural structure into rationalization and advancement, and constructs econometric models of the relations between adjustment of agricultural structure and agricultural growth and agricultural production cycle, and makes empirical research on the structural bonus. The results show that for the ＂fast＂ growth effects, both the short-term adjustment and extension of agricultural production are conducive to releasing the potential of the long-term expansion ; for the ＂steady＂ growth, the dis- tortion of the agricultural structure is not conducive to the formation of steady expectation in agricultural markets. If the deep adjustment of the agricultural structure is not made, we can expect more volatility in the future, and the cycle will continue. And the high-class agricultural structure is conducive to stable agricultural production, which is mainly due to growing maturity of market mechanism and im- provement of the laws and regulations in agricultural markets. The nature of high-class structure is to utilize market to counter market. This paper argues that the government should emphasize structural rationalization of agriculture departments in the formulation of agricultural development strategies, as well as promoting high-class agricultural structure to make the best use of the role of structural dividends.