基于损失厌恶模型的绿色贸易政策研究

Loss Aversion Model Applied on Green Trade Policy

以前景理论为基础,笔者选取了2009年~2012年上市公司行业分类指导中主要参与国际经营的行业企业,通过非线性参数估计等计量方法证明了中国参与对外经济个体企业的损失厌恶存在。结果显示,可持续健康发展的绿色贸易政策应对步入衰退初期的行业或企业实行充分甚至不对等的贸易保护,主要表现为加大技术扶持力度及征收环境关税;而对于处于持续衰退期的产业链低端企业及发展较好且已步入正轨的企业应适当减少政府政策的关注。

This paper studies Chinese green trade policy determination and performance based On prospect theory, and explains the specific characteristics of green trade policy in China. It selects listed firms involved in international business during 2009 -2012 referred by industry classification of public traded companies＇ guidelines （2012） as analysis samples. Using a nonlinear regression procedure and other econometric methods, it proves that, at the present economic developing situation in China, a sustainable and healthy green trade policy should protect the declining industries or even give them special privileges, which are normally expressed by increasing technical investments and implementing environmental tariffs ; and for those long-term declining or long-term growing firms, the government should focus less on them in terms of effective strategy for trade protection policies.