我国对高收入经济体服务贸易出口的影响因素研究——基于引力模型和随机效应面板数据模型的实证分析

The Influencing Factors of China's Service Exports to High-income Economies:An Empirical Study Using Gravity Model and Random-effect Panel Data Model

笔者在对2001年~2013年相关面板数据进行单位根检验与协整检验的基础上,采用面板数据随机效应模型就我国对高收入经济体服务贸易出口的具体影响因素展开了实证研究。结果发现:我国货物贸易出口、服务出口技术复杂度的提升、来自高收入经济体的FDI以及双边经济增长等因素均对我国向高收入经济体的服务出口显示出正向促进作用,而人民币实际有效汇率升值、双边距离则显现出负面影响。

This article selects 19 high-income economies as representatives, then constructs a new Gravity model, and after unit root and co-integration tests on the 2001 -2013 panel data, adopts a Panel-data Random-effects model to conduct an empirical study on the factors influencing China＇ s services exports to high-income economies. The results show that China＇ s goods exports, its services export＇ s sophistication upgrading, real FD1 from high-income economies as well as bilateral GDP increases are producing positive effects, while the appreciation of RMB＇ s real effective exchange rate and the distance variable demonstrate negative responses.