金融不稳定假说的机制解析与实证检验

Mechanism Analysis and Empirical Test of Financial Instability Hypothesis

笔者使用经济增长和金融发展数据,对明斯基的金融不稳定假说在我国是否成立进行了论证。研究表明:1999年~2012年,我国的金融风险并未呈现累积提升之势,即金融不稳定假说在我国并不成立,反映了我国金融自由化程度较低和政府政策的强力干预。伴随金融改革的深化和经济增速的放缓,我国将迎来新一轮金融风险上升期,政府政策的实施将面临更为严峻的挑战。因此,未来应加强金融不稳定监测,深化金融监管机制,寻求金融健康适度发展。

Minsky＇ s financial instability hypothesis reveals the decision mechanism and cumulative effect of financial risk, and this paper analyzes the theory and tests whether this hypothesis becomes a reality in China from macro perspective. Research shows that China＇ s financial risk does not cumulate between 1999 and 2012, namely the financial instability hypothesis is not established in our country, reflecting the low level of financial liberalization and strong intervention of government policy in China. In addition, with the deepening of financial reform and economic slowdown, China＇ s financial risk will enter a new round of rising period, and the implementation of government policy will face more severe challenges. Therefore, in the future China should strengthen the monitoring of financial instability, deepen the operation of financial supervision, and seek the moderation of financial development.