我国通货膨胀持久性的测度:中位数回返方法

A Measure of Inflation Persistence in China:Median Reversion Method

本文提出了一种新的通货膨胀持久性的非参数测度方法:中位数回返方法。相对于现有的持久性测度方法,该方法不需要模型假定和参数估计,具有较强的稳健性。我们利用2001年1月至2014年2月的月度CPI同比数据,对我国居民消费价格指数以及八大类分指数的持久性问题进行了实证分析,研究结果表明,我国的通货膨胀具有较强的持久性。具体到某个行业来看,烟酒及用品类的通胀持久性最强,其次是医疗保健和个人用品类以及居住类。相对而言,衣着类、家庭设备用品及维修服务类的通胀持久性最弱。

In this paper, a new nonparametric measure of inflation persistence methods： Median rever- sion method is proposed. Compared with the existing persistence measure method, this method does not need model assumptions and parameter estimation, and has strong robustness. By using the monthly CPI data between January 2001 and February 2014, the persistence of inflation in China is carried on the empirical analysis. The research results show that China＇s inflation has strong persistence. Specific to a particular industry, tobacco, wine and supplies class inflation persistence is the strongest, followed by health care and personal products class and housing class. Contrast, clothing, household appliances and maintenance services of inflation persistence is the weakest.