金融危机、企业投资波动及信贷刺激效果研究

Research on Financial Crisis,Business Cycle and Credit Stimulus

本文对金融危机对我国上市公司投资的影响及信贷刺激政策的有效性进行了实证检验和分析。研究发现,金融危机主要通过市场需求冲击和提高投资者的预防性动机对企业投资支出产生负面影响,信贷供给冲击对我国上市公司的投资没有产生显著影响。金融危机期间所采取的信贷刺激政策对上市公司而言没有发挥显著作用。本文进一步对信贷政策的长期效果进行了检验,从一个完整的经济周期来看,良好的盈利前景和持续的信贷供给是增加企业投资水平的有效保证。但是经济下行期,企业投资对信贷刺激的敏感性降低,应避免采取过激的政策并诱发其他经济不良后果的可能性。

This paper analyses the impact of financial crisis on the investment of listed Companies and the effectiveness of the credit policy in China. It was found that the financial crisis did adversely affect the listed companies＇ investment expenditure principally by market demands and the precautionary rather than credit supply shocks. The credit stimulus policies taken during the financial crisis did not play a significant role to the listing Corporation. We further examine the long-term effect of credit policy in a complete economic cycle and find good prospects for profitability and sustained credit supply are effective guarantee to increase the level of investment of the enterprise. But during the period of the economic downturn, the sensitivity of the corporate investment to the credit stimulus reduced, aggressive policies should be forbidden to avoid bad economic other consequences.