基于CLHA模型的住房支付能力研究

An empirical study on housing affordability based on CLHA model

准确测算家庭住房支付能力,保持家庭住房消费的可持续性,对政府宏观调控和房地产企业开发决策都具有重要的参考价值。研究基于住房消费的持续性特征,针对使用当期收入测算住房支付能力的偏误问题,通过综合考虑家庭当期住房消费能力和长期住房消费能力,建立了CLHA(Current-Long Housing Affordability,短期—长期住房支付能力)模型,主要探析了家庭住房支付能力的组合分类模式,并且以我国城镇各收入阶层为例进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:使用当期收入测算家庭住房支付能力确实会造成偏误;我国最低收入阶层家庭住房支付能力不足,中等偏下及以上收入阶层家庭在一定程度上具有完全住房支付能力;部分家庭的当期收入与其长期住房消费能力之间存在矛盾;我国住房消费已经形成了一定的梯度结构。

It is very important reference for governmentg macro-regulation and development decisions of developers to estimate accurately housing affordability of households so as to keep their sustainable of housing consumption. This paper researched current housing consumption ability and long-term housing consumption ability of households at the same time based on the continuity of housing consumption, aimed at errors caused by using current income to estimate housing affordability and established a housing affordability （CLHA） model. Then this paper mainly carries on the classification modes of housing affordability. Finally it estimated housing affordability of different income levels in china by using the CLHA model. The results show the bias existed when current income is used to estimate housing affordability, and housing affordability of the lowest income level is inadequate, but housing affordability of the low middle and above income level is adequate in a certain degree. The results also show current income does not meet long term housing consumption ability in some households, and the housing consumption gradient has formed between different income levels.