我国对外贸易绩效水平的测算与实证

China's Foreign Trade:Performance Measurement,Changes and Influencing Factors

文章利用DEA-Malmquist指数方法,从静态和动态角度对2002—2015年我国30个省市对外贸易绩效进行实证研究,并运用Tobit模型对影响绩效水平的因素进行分析。结果表明,我国对外贸易绩效水平整体不高,提升空间很大;东部地区绩效水平明显高于中西部地区;技术进步变化对我国对外贸易效率变动起主要作用;固定资产投资、对外开放水平和技术创新的影响显著。

This article uses the DEA-Malmquist index method to make an empirical research on China＇s foreign trade perfor- mance of 30 provinces and cities in 2002--2015 from the static and dynamic view and uses the Tobit model to analyze the factors affecting the performance level. The results show that the overall level of China＇s foreign trade performance is not high and the space to enhance is very large; the improvement of the level of performance in eastern region is significantly higher than that of the central and western regions; the change of technological progress plays a major role in the change of China＇s foreign trade efficien- cy; Fixed asset investment, the impact of the level of opening up and technological innovation have a significant impact on foreign trade performance.