基于跳跃扩散过程的地方政府债务规模测度

Municipal Gebt Size Measurement Based on the Jump-Diffusion Process

文章基于地方政府的"土地财政"这一事实,利用跳跃扩散过程刻画"土地财政"对债务规模测度的影响。通过求解跳跃扩散过程,建立债务规模测度模型,分析债务规模与财政收入水平、财政收入增长率、波动率、财政收入对土地出让收入依赖程度之间的关系。利用冲击效应测度土地出让收入冲击对债务规模的影响。分析结果表明,地方政府债务规模依赖于财政收入水平、财政收入增长率、波动率、债务风险以及财政收入对土地出让收入的依赖程度等要素。对于债务风险较高、对"土地财政"依赖程度较高的地方政府,债务规模要适度减少。

Jump diffusion process was applied to reflect the effects of land transfer revenue on revenue. To solve the jump dif- fusion process by the Ito-skorohod fomular, municipal debt size measurement model was deducted. According to the model, the relationship between debt size and the gross financial revenue, financial revenue＇s growth rate and volatility rate of financial reve- nue and the dependence level of financial revenue on the land transfer income was analyzed. The influence of ＂land finance＂ on the debt size measure was checked by the shock effect. The result shows that the municipal debt size was determined by the factor such as the gross financial revenue, financial revenues growth rate and volatile rate of financial revenue, debt default risk and the dependence level of financial revenue on the land transfer income etc. It needs to be reducted the debt size of the municipal gov- ernment with higher debt risk and more dependence on the ＂land finance＂.