科技进步、产业结构演化与经济增长

Scientific and Technological Progress, Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth

在测度科技进步增长率和产业结构演化速率的基础上,定量分析科技进步、产业结构和经济增长的相互作用机制。研究发现:(1)技术进步增长率具有明显的周期性特征,且与经济周期呈现同步变化;(2)产业结构演化随着结构调整的深入,其速率总体呈现下降态势,产业结构调整逐步由量向质转化和升级;(3)三者间的作用机制在短期存在较大差异,甚至是出现反向作用,但是长期均呈现积极、稳定的正向促进关系。

In our paper, we do a quantitative analysis of the interaction mechanism of scientific and technological progress, industrial structure, and economic growth, based on the measure of progress in science technological and, the evolution of industrial structure. The empirical studies show that （1） the scientific and technological progress has the characteristic of periodical and, rendering synchronization changes with business cycle; （2） the evolution of industry structure has a downward trend with the gradual adjustment of industry structure and, the adjustment of industry structure gradually change from quantity to quality; （3） there is a big difference, even a reverse effect, occurs in the interaction mechanism of the three variables in a short-term, while there has a positive, stable and positive promote relationships between them in the long-term.