“英国脱欧”对世界贸易的影响——基于复杂网络的收入支出模型分析

The Effect of “Brexit”on World Trade: An Analysis Based on the Income- expenditure Model of Complex Network

"英国脱欧"作为2016年一个重大的经济政治事件,对欧盟经济乃至艰难复苏的世界经济带来重大的负面影响。文章采用基于复杂网络的收入支出模型分析"英国脱欧"对世界贸易的影响。研究表明:"英国脱欧"在四种场景下的模拟分析,都对世界各国的进出口贸易产生负面影响;受影响最大的国家既有欧盟国家也有非欧盟国家;各国需要采取相应的经济政策缓解"英国脱欧"带来的经济冲击。

＂Brexit＂ is a significant economic and political event in 2016, which affects the EU economy and the recovery of world economy adversely. This paper uses the income - expenditure model based on complex network to analyze the effect of the event of ＂Brexit＇＇ on the world trade. The result shows that： in the simulation under the four scenarios, Brexit affects every country＇s import and export adversely; the countries which are affected mostly are not only from EU countries, but also from the rest world; every country needs to adopt economic policies to alleviate the economic shock from the event of ＂Brexit＂.