1960—2010年克里雅河流域极端气温事件变化趋势

Change Trends of Extreme Temperature Events in the Keriya River Basin during the Period of 1960-2010

利用克里雅河流域于田县气象站1960—2010年逐日最高气温和最低气温资料,利用RClim Dex软件计算了该流域12个极端气温指数,采用10 a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对其变化规律进行分析。结果表明:1暖昼日数(TX90)、暖夜日数(TN90)、夏日数(SU)和热夜日数(TR)等极端气温暖指数均呈显著增加趋势,变幅分别为1.45 d·(10a)^(-1)、1.82 d·(10a)^(-1)、3.07 d·(10a)^(-1)、1.66 d·(10a)^(-1)。其中,夏日数(SU)和暖夜日数(TN90)变化最显著。2在极端气温冷指数中,月最高气温极小值(TXn)和极端最低气温(TNn)上升,冷昼日数(TX10)、冷夜日数(TN10)、结冰日数(ID)和霜冻日数(FD)分别以0.61 d·(10a)^(-1)、0.91 d·(10a)^(-1)、1.1 d·(10a)^(-1)和0.9 d·(10a)^(-1)下降。3各极端气温指数变化在1960—1986年与1987—2010年两个时段差异明显。在1987—2010年,极端气温暖指数明显上升,而极端气温冷指数下降趋势比较明显。

In this study,twelve temperature indexes recommended by World Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Index were computed and analyzed for the Yutian Oasis in the Keriya River Basin in south Xinjiang,China during the period of 1960- 2010 based on the daily minimum and maximum temperature data observed by Yutian Meteorological Station. The results showed that the warm-related indexes including the warm days（ TX90P）,warm nights（ TN90P）,summer days（ SU） and tropical nights（ TR） increased by 1. 45 d·（ 10a）^-1,1. 82 d·（ 10a）^-1,3. 07 d·（ 10a）^-1 and 1. 66 d·（ 10a）^-1 respectively. In contrast,the cold-related indexes including the cold days（ TX10P）,cold nights（ TN10P）,icing days（ ID） and frost days（ FD） decreased by 0. 61d·（ 10a）^-1,0. 91 d·（ 10a）^-1,1. 1 d·（ 10a）^-1 and 0. 9 d·（ 10a）^-1 respectively. On the whole,the increase of warm-related indexes was faster than that of cold-related ones during the period from 1960 to 2010. Mann-Kendall test results showed that there were the abrupt changes of all the temperature indexes during the period from1960 to 2010. The variations of extreme temperature indexes were obviously different between the periods of 1960-1986 and 1987- 2010. Almost all the temperature indexes during the period of 1987- 2010 changed more significantly than those during the period of 1960- 1986. The increase trends of all the warm-related indexes occurred during the period of 1987- 2010,but the cold-related indexes decreased significantly except the icing days（ ID）during this period. Compared with the extreme temperature indexes of the whole nation and Xinjiang,the extreme temperature indexes in the basin were lower than those on national and Xinjiang scales during the period from 1961 to 2009. In contrast,the extreme temperature indexes during the period from 1987 to 2010 were higher than those on national and regional scales. There was a sharp temperature increase in the Keriya River Basin from 1987. This research could help us to know about the effects of global warming on this study area.