四川省江油市2004～2020年土地利用动态分析及预测

The Dynamic Change Analysis and Prediction of Land Use in Jiangyou City from 2004 to 2020

基于2004、2010、2015年Landsat-5 TM、Landset-8 OLI遥感影像土地利用现状解译数据,分析了江油市近11年土地利用动态变化;同时,利用元胞自动机–马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型,模拟预测了2020年江油市土地利用空间分布格局。结果表明,2004~2015年期间,江油市耕地、草地、水域面积总体减少,建设用地和林地面积总体呈增加趋势。2015~2020年期间,江油市土地利用变化较快,与上一个五年相比,建设用地、耕地和草地面积将有所增加,林地面积有所减少,水域面积基本不变;建设用地从原有基础往外围耕地扩张,耕地面积则主要由林地转入。

Based on land use interpretation data from Landsat - 5TM and Landset - 80LI remote sensing images in 2004, 2010, and 2015, the dynamics change of land use types in the Jiangyou City nearly 11 years were analyzed. Meanwhile, land use change spatial distribution pattern of 2020 was forecasted based on CA - Markov model. The results show that the area of farmland, grassland and water were reduced from 2004 to 2015, while the forest and construction land showing an increasing trend. Compared with 2010 to 2015, the land use will change fast from 2015 to 2020, construction land, farmland grassland areas will be increased, forest area will be decreased and the change of water is little. Construction land will expand on the basis of the present to the peripheral farmland, and the farmland is mainly transferred from the forest.