国际贸易中进出口货物的宏观质量预警

Macro-quality Prediction of Imports and Exports in International Trade

为了保证和提高进出口货物的总体质量,提高通关速度和通关效率,需要对进出口货物的总体质量进行宏观上的监测与分析,从而为加速通关提供决策支持。研究分析了进出口货物检验检疫的统计数据特点,构建了进出口货物评价指标体系;在进出口货物按照业务性质进行分类的基础上,从年度、年度内时段、年度内月份等3个不同的时间段进行了宏观质量指数的构建和预警方法的相关研究,将进出口货物的总体质量状况按照预警指数进行等级划分,用于向社会公布其总体质量情况,也可用于内部监控;指出了货物宏观质量分析的具体思路,在系统得到报警信息时,启动分析模型以便找到对应的对宏观质量指数影响较大的货物种类,然后采取措施进行重点检查和监控。

With expansion of international trade,the trade volume of global import and export cargos is increasing rapidly.To improve the quality and clearance efficiency of import and export cargos,quality of import and export cargos needs to be monitored and analyzed,thus to support decision making in the clearance.This paper analyzes statistical characteristics of inspection and quarantine of import and export cargos,and constructs an evaluation index system for import and export cargos.Based on the business nature of import and export cargos,the research constructs a macro-quality index system for yearly,quarterly and monthly inspection.Construction of a quality prediction system is discussed,and a macro quality analysis method for macro-quality prediction system is proposed.It is important to speed clearance,improve quality and efficiency of international trade.