中国出口附加值率的产业特征及其演进路径分析——基于核密度函数分解技术

Analysis of Industrial Characteristics and Dynamic Evolution of Export Added-value Rates of China——Based on a Kernel Density Function Decomposition Approach

基于中国投入产出表,应用核密度估计及其分解技术,本文分析了中国加入WTO之后,各产业出口附加值率的分布及其动态变化。结果表明:中国各产业出口附加值率经历了先快速下降、再适度反弹,而后趋于平稳的演进路径;但三大产业的出口附加值率在演进方向、力度、强度和时间分布上呈现出不同的特征。进一步分析发现:三大产业出口附加值率动态演进的首要原因在于均值效应,其次为残差效应,效果最小的是方差效应。因而,促进出口附加值率增加既要推进各产业的整体发展,又要兼顾不同产业的个体特征。

Based on the Input-Output Tables of China, this paper gives a deep insight of the distribution and changing characters of export added-value rate of China, s industries after China joining WTO by the method of kernel density function. The results show that as a whole, all the export added-value rates of China,s three industries are showing a trend toward rapid decline at first, then moderate rebound and finally stability, while each industry varies in direction, strength and time. Using kernel density function decomposition approach, it finds that the leading cause of dynamic change is average effect （a decrease in the overall export value-added rate） , next is residual effect （heterogeneity products division with extremely high or low export value added rate） , and the last is variance effect （uneven export value-added rate in all products）. Thus, the promotion of export value-added increase needs to boost the holistic devel-opment of all industries and to pay attention to individual feature of different industries.