中国农村居民理性通胀预期检验与消费分析

Test of Inflation Expectation and Consumption Analysis for Chinese Rural Residents

基于动态效用函数确定了理性消费下的储蓄率构成,并就中国八大地区农村居民1993-2013年相关经济数据进行实证研究。研究发现,中国农村居民通胀预期是否理性具有明显的地区差异,而各时期消费理性差异的主要表现不同,前10年理性程度较高,而后5年持续走低,并且理性通胀预期与理性消费虽并无必然联系,但二者具有某种关联性。

The saving ratio model of consumer equilibrium was obtained based upon dynamic utility function and empirical analysis combined with Chinese relative yearly data 1993-2013 were done, about Chinese eight areas＇ rural residents. The research found that the rationality of inflation anticipation had obvious area difference, while period discrepancy for consumption rationality. In the beginning of 10 years, Chinese rural residents＇ consumption had higher rationality, but in the last of 5years, it had been trending lower. It had not absolute causal relationship for rational inflation expectations and rational consumption, but they had some relevance definitly.