摘要
电缆接头温度严重影响电缆的绝缘寿命,传统的电力电缆监控系统通过采集电缆接头温度,当监测到电缆接头温度大于阂值时再进行处理,此时可能已经发生电缆故障。重点研究如何实现电缆故障预判,通过合适的算法提前判断电缆接头存在故障的可能性。因此提出利用灰色GM(1,1)模型建立电缆接头温度预测模型,实时预测电缆接头在下个周期内的温度,将该模型的预测值与阈值进行比较,当预测值大于阈值时,电缆便存在发生故障的趋势,系统发出告警信号。利用该顸警模型成功预测了蚌埠供电公司汤河路段电缆故障点。
Conductor temperature is an important factor that affects the insulation life of cable when the power cable is running. It is found that when the power cable is working properly, the temperature of the cable con- neetion is stable at a certain value. When the temperature of the cable joint is higher than a certain threshold value, the cable fault may have occurred. Therefore, using grey GM （ 1, 1） model to construct cable joint tem- perature prediction model to predict the temperature of cable connector in the next cycle real-time is proposed. The predicted value and threshold value of the model will be compared, and when the predicted value is greater than the threshold value, the alarm will be enabled. The cable fault point of the Tang River section of Bengbu Power Supply Company is successfully predicted by this model.
出处
《测控技术》
CSCD
2017年第1期144-148,共5页
Measurement & Control Technology
