中国北方从狩猎采集向农业转变过程的影响因素分析：生产可能性边界模型的解释

INFLUENCE FACTORS ON TRANSFORMATION FROM HUNTING-GATHERING TO AGRICULTURE IN NORTH CHINA： THE INTERPRETATION FROM PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES FRONTIER MODEL

农业经济的形成经历了从狩猎采集到农业生产的漫长转变过程，目前关于中国北方农业起源的动因研究还不够。本文通过构建基于生产可能性边界理论的狩猎采集-农业生产方式转换模型，分别探讨了技术、环境、人口因素对于人类生产方式选择的影响。在此基础上分析了中国北方从狩猎采集向农业转变过程的影响因素，认为距今10000年前开始的对禾草类植物的早期利用及之后农业技术的发展，更新世晚期至全新世早期的一系列冷气候事件及地貌演化，以及新石器中晚期人口数量的迅速增加等因素均不同程度加速了中国北方生业模式从狩猎采集向农业转变的过程。

The process from hunting-gathering to agriculture has experienced a long time, however, discussions on the influence factors for the origin of agriculture in North China are not enough. In this paper, we build a hunting-gathering ＆ agricultural transformation model based on the the production possibilities frontier theory. It was assumed that there were only two completely replaceable production modes：hunting-gathering and agriculture, and the economic man would made the most rational choice. Under these hypotheses, three models were built to discuss how the technology, environment and population would effect on the choice of human production respectively. The technology-influence model showed that the speed of technological progress would effect the choice of people, promoting people to choose more productive method. The environment-influence model showed that the environmental deterioration would bring pressure on hunting and gathering activities, promoting people to take more agricultural activities. The population-influence model showed that the pressure brought by population expansion would impel people to increase the proportion of more-efficient mode of production. Based on the hunting-gathering and agriculture transformation model built in this paper, we analysis the factors affecting the process from hunting-gathering to agriculture in North China. The archaeobotany evidences showed that before or around 10000 years ago people in North China had begun the early usage of plants and animals. These early agricultural technology is the necessary prerequisite of the process from hunting-gathering to agriculture. The development of production and processing tools showed the agricultural technology progress, which probably promoted people to select the agriculture. The cold climate events during Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene such as LGM, YD and 9-8ka B.P. event promoted the process from hunting-gathering to agriculture. On one side, the colder climate decreased the wild animals and plants, restraining the hunting and gathering activites; on the other side, the appearance of wide grassland and plain promoted the early usage of the grass family （Poaceae）, promoting the development of agriculture. However, the environmental pressure was neither the sufficient condition nor necessary condition for the origin of agriculture, it＇s only an important promoting factor. Besides, the positive feedback loop between population growth and agriculture after middle Neolithic period also promoted the rapid transformation to agriculture, which lead the subordinate agricultural economy in Peiligang period（9000-7000a B.P.）to dominant agricultural economy in Yangshao period（7000-5000a B.P.）. In summary, we suppose that the early usage of the grass family （Poaceae） and agricultural technology development before ten thousand years ago, series of cold climate events and landform evolution between Late Pleistocene to Early Holocene, and the population expansion after middle Neolithic period all promoted the transformation from hunting-gathering to agriculture in North China.