辽宁地区中强震预测指标体系研究

RESEARCH ON THE PREDICTIVE INDEX SYSTEM OF MEDIUM-STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN LIAONING PROVINCE

分别提取地震三要素的异常指标,建立了辽宁地区异常指标体系。通过梳理辽宁及周边中强地震前测震学科异常变化特征,提取异常指标,研究各指标与地震三要素的关系,给出异常指标的权重;根据历史震例研究前兆学科典型趋势和短临异常变化特征,提取异常变化幅度、持续时间和形态变化特征等定量指标,同时给出各异常指标与地震三要素的关系,依据地震对应情况给出各异常指标的权重;最后结合辽宁地区测震学前及前兆学指标,以及各异常指标权重信息集成,建立辽宁地区中强震预测指标体系,为辽宁地区危险区判定和跟踪提供依据与技术支持。

This paper respectively extracted the three elements of earthquake for the anomaly index, which established the anomaly index system in Liaoning province. Through features of the seismic anomaly variations before moderate-strong earthquakes in Liaoning and around areas .We extract the anomaly index ,study the relations between every index and the three elements of earthquake and give the weight of anomaly index. To study typical tendency anomalies and short-term anomaly features in every subject and extract several quantitative indicators for amplitude of the anomaly changes, duration and the features of form changes ,we obtain the relations between anomalies index and three elements of earthquakes .At the same time ,the anomaly index weights are given . Finally ,combined with the geological structures in Liaoning province and the anomaly index weight information integration , we established the index system to predict the strong earthquakes in Liaoning province. It will provide the technical support and basis for judging and tracking the danger area in Liaoning province.