公共安全、风险预防及治理策略选择——以“12·31”上海外滩踩踏事件为例

Public Safety,Risk Prediction and Management Strategies:A Case Study on Stampede at the Bund in Shanghai on 31,December

群体性踩踏事件具有突发性、复杂性、连锁性和叠加性等特征,已成为政府、社会和学界高度关注的公共安全问题。风险预防原则主要包括风险阀值、成本收益、强风险预防与弱风险预防、不确定性和情景构建等原则。"12·31"外滩踩踏事件风险预防明显不足,具体表现为风险评估失误、风险预警信息不足、风险预防行为缺失和风险监控存在漏洞等。国外应对群体性踩踏事件的风险预防模式主要有活动人数风险预防、活动场域风险预防、风险知识宣传预防、活动导火线风险控制、风险预防专人负责制等模式。国内外案例研究对我国公共安全事件风险预防主要有风险阈值科学发现与合理制订、风险预防目标设立、有效风险评估和公众参与等启示。通过深刻反思这一事件发生的结构性原因,推动突发性社会安全事故风险预防相应变革,避免类似悲剧再次发生,这才是最为重要的事情。

Stampede is characterized by exigency, complexity, linkage, overlying and so on, which has been a focus of government, society and scholar circle. Risk prediction includes such principles as risk threshold, cost - benefit, prediction of serious risk and weak risk, uncertainty and scene construction. There is negligence in risk prediction for the stampede at Chenyi Square at the Bund on 31, December. Its negligence are as follows： fault in risk evaluation, insufficiency in risk warning, absence of risk prediction and negligence in risk supervision. Modes for risk prediction in stampede in foreign countries are as follows： risk prediction in numbers to participate in activi- ties, places for activity, publicity of risk knowledge, control over time bomb of activity, system of post responsibility in risk prediction and so on. Case study on stampede in foreign countries will bring great benefits to prediction of public safety in our country in discovering and setting risk threshold, establishing aims for risk prediction, effective- ly evaluating risk and encouraging the public to participate. The key point is to improve risk prediction of emergent safety incidents in society in order to avoid such tragedy by reflecting on structural causes for such stampede.