广东旅游产业供给侧改革与灰色预测研究

Grey Prediction of Tourism Industry in Guangdong from the Perspective of Supply-side Reform

旅游业供给侧改革与灰色预测研究,有助于转变旅游发展理念、改革旅游经济增长方式,从而发挥旅游业对相关产业的综合拉动效应.选取广东省2004年至2015年旅游业统计数据,以广东接待过夜游客人数、旅游总收入为研究变量,利用Matlab计算GM(1,1)模型,通过误差分析、模型精度及残差检验、外推预测与修正等,结果显示"十三五"期间广东接待过夜游客人数、旅游总收入呈持续增长趋势.根据对广东旅游收入与人数灰色预测及研判,基于供给侧改革及全域旅游视域下,提出了培育旅游新业态、丰富旅游产品供给体系、促进旅游消费升级等产业转型发展、旅游品牌建设的针对性策略.

Tourism supply- side reform and gray prediction,helps transform the concept of tourism development,tourism economic reform and growth,and thus plays a comprehensive pulling effect on tourism- related industries.This poperselects tourism statistics,from 2004 to 2015 ln clading the number of overnight visitors in Guangdong received a total tourism revenue of study variables,the use of Matlab computing GM（ 1,1） model,through error analysis and accuracy of the model,residual test,extrapolation prediction and correction,etc. The results showed that duwing＂Thirteen Five＂period,Guangdong province received overnight visitors,and tourism revenue growth trend was sustained. According to the gray forecast for Guangdong tourism income and the number and judged based on the following supply- side reform and global tourist sights,this paper proposed to cultivate new form of tourism,rich tourism product supply system,promote tourism consumption upgrading of industrial restructuring and development,tourism brand- building for strategy.