城镇人口老龄化与国内旅游消费——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Urban Aging and Domestic Tourism Consumption: An Empirical Analysis based on VAR Model

我国城镇人口老龄化水平不断加快,老年群体的旅游消费规模也在逐年增加,旅游已经成为老年人提升生活质量的重要消费方式。本文以我国1994-2013年的年度数据为基础,采用VAR模型对国内旅游消费与城镇人口老龄化之间的关系进行实证分析,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法探析城镇人口老龄化对国内旅游业发展的影响。从长期趋势看,城镇人口老龄化对国内游客人次的累积效应大于对国内旅游总花费的累积效应,这表明城镇人口老龄化与国内游客人次之间存在显著的长期稳定的正向关系,但城镇人口老龄化和国内旅游总花费之间的长期趋势并不显著;城镇人口老龄化对国内游客人次的预测方差贡献度显著,而对国内旅游总花费的预测方差贡献度相对较小。

At present,the level of urban aging in China has been accelerating,while the tourism consumption of the elderly population is increasing year by year. Tourism has become an important way to improve old people＇ s quality of life.An empirical study has been completed by using the related time series data from 1994 to 2013 and a VAR（ Vector Autoregressive） model is constructed based on reflecting the dynamic relationship between urban aging and the domestic tourism consumption level. Based on VAR model,with impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of the urban aging on the domestic tourism. The cumulative effect of urban aging on domestic tourists trips arrivals is greater than the cumulative effect of the total cost of domestic tourism,indicating that there is a significant long-term stable positive relationship between urban aging and domestic tourists trips arrivals,but the long-term relationship between urban aging and the total domestic tourism spending is not significant; the aging of urban population plays an important role in the predictive variance of domestic tourist arrivals,but the aging of the urban population is relatively small in the variance of the prediction of the total cost of domestic tourism.