中国全要素生产率的再测算与分解研究--基于多要素技术进步偏向的视角

Recalculating and Decomposing of the Total Factor Productivity of China:The Perspective of Multi-factor Technology Progress

本文基于多要素的CES生产函数,构建了中性技术进步、偏向型技术进步对全要素生产率增长的影响框架,将全要素生产率增长率分解为中性技术进步效率变化效应、非公共资本增强型技术进步效率变化效应、劳动-非公共资本之间的偏向型技术进步效应、公共资本-非公共资本之间的偏向型技术进步效应。在此基础上,利用1990-2014年数据进行实证研究发现,中国要素替代弹性显著大于0且小于1;劳动的生产效率是提高的,而公共资本与非公共资本的生产效率是下降的;技术进步偏向资本,并且偏向非公共资本的程度大于公共资本,这是导致中国全要素生产率增长减缓的主要原因。进一步实证分析表明,2008年金融危机后,政府加速公共资本的投放导致技术进步越渐朝向公共资本方向发展,进一步抑制了全要素生产率增长。因此,为实现生产率提升和经济增长方式转变,应充分发挥自身劳动力的比较优势,适度减少公共资本,尽快转向依赖技术进步、技术效率变化和非公共资本的轨道上来。

Based on the multi-factor CES production function, this paper constructs the framework in which neutral and biased technical progress affect TFP growth. We decompose TFP growth into the effect of the change in the efficiency of neutral technical progress, the effect of the change in the efficiency of non-public capital enhanced technical progress, the effect of biased technical progress between labor and non-public capital, the effect of biased technical progress between public capital and non-public capital. By using the data from 1990 to 2014, we find that China＇ s elasticity of substitution of factor was significantly between 0 and 1. The labor productivity improved, while the productivity of public and non-public capital decreased. We also find that technical progress was capital （especially non- public capital ） biased, which was the main cause of the slowdown of China＇s TFP growth. Further empirical analysis reveals that China＇ s TFP growth was repressed since technical progress became more public capital biased with the large public capital investment by the government after the 2008 financial crisis. Our finding suggests that, in order to improve productivity and transform economic growth pattern, China should make full use of its comparative advantage of labor, modestly reduce public capital investment, quickly shifted to the path of relying on technical progress, technical efficiency improvement and non-public capital.