新人口红利、生产性服务业发展与城市生产率——基于长三角城市群的实证研究

New Demographic Bonus,Productive Service Industry Development and Urban Productivity: A Positive Study Based on the Yangtze River Delta City Group

传统人口红利消失和产业结构红利消失的双重叠加是经济增长进入"新常态"过程中城市经济必需面临的重大挑战。本文基于2003-2014年长三角地区41个城市的面板数据模型,考察了新人口红利和生产性服务发展对城市生产率的影响,研究结果表明:通过发展高等教育积累的人力资本是新人口红利产生的重要源泉,对长三角城市生产率具有促进作用;发展生产性服务业是释放人力资本生产率促进功能的途径,生产性服务业与城市生产率之间呈现先降后升的U型关系。江浙两省地级市的子样本估计结果显示,新人口红利对城市生产率的促进作用不显著,这意味着江浙地区仍需创造释放人力资本对城市生产率促进功能的政策空间。

Urban economy is facing enormous challenge since traditional demographic dividend and industrial structure bonus are disappearing simultaneously. This paper empirically examines the effect of new demographic bonus and the development of productive service industry on urban pro- ductivity, using the sample data of 41cities in Yangtze River Delta from 2003 to 2014. The results show that the new demographic bonus generated by high education has a positive effect on urban pro- ductivity while the relationship between the productive service industry and urban productivity is shown as a U shape. However, the promoting effect of new demographic bonus on urban productivity is not significant in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Hence, local government should formulate policies sup- porting human capital accumulation and industrial structure evolution progressively.