美国退出QE与中国经济波动关联性分析——基于短期资本流动的视角

An Analysisof America's Exit of Quantitative Easing Policy and China's Economic Fluctuations:A Perspective of Short-Term Capital Flows

文章通过VAR模型分析美国量化宽松货币政策退出对中国宏观经济的影响,并运用月度宏观经济数据从短期资本流动角度进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,美国量化宽松货币政策的退出对中国短期资本流动不产生直接影响,汇率和利率指标也不是影响中国短期资本流动的显著因素,控制M2的增长率是减少美国量化宽松货币政策退出对中国经济冲击的最核心指标。美国退出量化宽松货币政策将会从通货膨胀、货币供给、宏观经济波动对中国经济造成一定影响,通过研究美国量化宽松政策退出,探讨美国货币政策变动与中国资本流动的联动性,致力于在复杂的中美经济关系和美国金融环境变化下,提出有利于中国短期资本市场稳定发展的货币政策建议。

Through the VAR model and monthly macroeconomic data, this article analyzes the impacts of America＇s exit of quantitative easing monetary policy on China＇s macro-economy, and gives an empirical analysis from the perspective of short-term capital flows. The results show that America＇s exit of quantitative easing monetary policy does not have a direct impact on China＇s short-term capital flows, and exchange rate and interest rate targets both are not significant factors affecting short-term capital flows. China needs to strictly control the growth rate of M2, which is the core indicator of the impacts on China＇s macro-economy.Finally, America＇s exit of quantitative easing monetary policy will have a certain impact on China＇s economy in inflation, money supply, macro-economic fluctuations, so to strengthen the related research has important theoretical and practical significance.