国际油价波动对我国经常账户影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Impacts of International Oil Price Fluctuations on China's Current Account

自从2001年中国入世后,国际油价等外部因素通过经常账户直接影响着中国宏观经济的外部平衡。近年来,国际石油价格和中国经常账户经历了较大的波动,呈现出明显的阶段性特征,且两者波动趋势趋同。文章通过实证分析发现,国际油价上涨在短期内对经常账户差额产生正的影响,而在长期内对经常账户整体产生负的影响;而当国际石油价格下跌时,情况与正的冲击相反。显然,中国作为世界最大贸易国和石油进口国,国际油价的上涨或下降都将持续影响着中国经常项目以及宏观经济的稳定发展。

Since China entered into the WTO in 2001, external factors such as international oil prices affected the external balance of China＇s macro economy through the current account. In recent years, international oil prices and Chinas current account had experienced large fluctuations, which presented the obvious stage characteristic and had the same trend. Through empirical analysis, this paper finds that the rising of international oil prices has positive impacts on the current account balance in the short term, and has negative impacts on the overall of current account in the long term. When the international oil prices falls, the impacts are just the opposite. Obviously, as the world＇s largest country in goods trading and oil imports, the fluctuations of international oil price will affect the stable development of China＇s current account and macro economy.