我国农地资源利用的碳排放测算及驱动因素实证分析

Study on the Scale and Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions of Agricultural Land Resource Utilization in China

以1995~2014年农业能源消耗为基础数据,利用碳排放估算公式对我国农地资源利用的碳排放规模、强度和结构进行测算。基于改进的Kaya等式与LMDI分解法,结合计量模型,对碳排放驱动因素进行实证分析。结果表明:我国农业碳排放量逐年增加,1995年为3882.8293万吨,2014年达到8385.9491万吨,年均增长4.15%。农药、化肥等所产生的碳排放量随着经济增长和农业生产方式的转变都出现了不同程度的增长。农业人均碳排放总量、单位耕地面积碳排放量不断递增。化肥、农药、农膜和农用柴油与农业碳排放量之间存在长期的稳定均衡关系。

This paper calculates the scale of emissions,carbon intensity,and carbon emissions structure of agriculture by the formulas for calculating carbon emissions,based on the status of agricultural carbon emissions from 1995 to 2014. And then,it empirically analyzes the carbon emissions driving factor decomposition by equality and improved Kaya LMDI decomposition. Results show that,the carbon emissions from agricultural country is increasing year by year,in 1995 is 3882. 8293 million tons,and in 2014 increases to 8385.9491 million tons,the average growth rate is of 4. 15%. Carbon emissions produced by pesticide,chemical fertilizer increases with the transformation of economic growth and the way of agricultural production. Per capita carbon emissions in agriculture and farmland has increased. There is the long-term stable equilibrium relationship between fertilizers,pesticides,plastic sheeting,diesel oil and agriculture carbon emissions.