雾霾灾害风险指数的构建与测度

Construction and Measurement of Haze-Fog Disaster Risk Index

近年来,雾霾天气的频繁出现给社会生产生活造成了严重的影响,要从根本上破解雾霾治理难题,必须科学测度我国雾霾灾害风险程度。文章运用主成分分析方法对空气质量、污染物排放等基础指标进行了降维,有效合成了雾霾灾害风险指数,并对指标有效性进行检验,结果显示该指标对雾霾灾害风险具有较好的预警作用。雾霾灾害风险指数的实证分析证明,雾霾灾害风险主要受空气质量和污染物排放的影响,在雾霾灾害的治理过程中应重视对空气中颗粒物的治理,加强对工业污染物和生活污染物排放的控制。

This paper uses the method of principal components analysis to dimensionality reduce on the number of indicators, such as air quality,pollutant emissions and other indicators, synthesis of the Haze-Fog Disaster Risk Index（HDRI） effectively. Re- search resuhs show that HDRI has better effect on early warning of haze-fog disaster risk. The empirical analysis shows that haze-fog disaster is mainly affected by the air quality and pollutant emissions, in the process of governance haze-fog disaster should pay more attention to the governance of the particles in the air and strengthen the control of industrial and domestic emis- sions of pollutants.