人口和产业集聚对环境污染的影响——以中国的100个城市为例

Influences on the environment pollution by population and industrial agglomeration: taking 100 cities of China for example

利用2003-2013年中国十大城市群所涉及的100个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用混合OLS方法,阐述了人口、产业集聚等因素的动态演化对环境污染影响的异质性。结果显示:工业废水排放量与城市群人口集聚度之间呈"倒U"型曲线关系,而工业二氧化硫和烟(粉)尘则与之呈"U"型曲线关系;随着人口集聚度的提高,产业专业化集聚对环境污染有先抑制后促进的作用,而产业多样化集聚则因污染物各异而呈现出不同的外部效应;城市群行政分割程度的加强会加重废水排放,但有利于减少二氧化硫、烟(粉)尘的排放。因此,各地区在城市群发展过程中应利用其"圈层"的结构特点,根据适度集聚原则确定群内人口的集聚度、产业的集聚模式。

Using 100 prefecturelevel cities above the panel data from China＇ s top ten city clusters from 2003 to 2013 and mixed OLS method in consideration of population, industry concentration and other factors dynamic evolution, this essay studies its heterogeneity of the relations between environmental pollution. The empirical results show that ： The amount of industrial waste water and urban population agglomeration was ＂ inverted U＂ shaped curve relationship, while industrial SO2 and smoke （powder） dust with urban population agglomeration was the ＂U＂ shaped curve relationship. With the increase of population concentration, the industrial specialization agglomeration suppresses environmental pollution at first, then increase pollution, but industrial pollutants＇ difference effects the diverse dynamic cluster＇s exhibit. City clusters＇ administrative division＇s strengthen will increase wastewater discharge, but it helps to reduce SO2 and smoke （powder） dust emissions, to improve air quality. Therefore, the regional city clusters＇ development process should use the structural characteristics of ＂ Circle＂ and the principles of moderation gathering to determine the degree of concentration of population, industry gathering mode.