特朗普政府上台与亚太安全局势的新挑战

The Upcoming Trump Administration and Its Challenges to the Asia-Pacific Regional Security

特朗普政府即将上台,世界与地区局势正在遭遇冷战后前所未有战略不安全感。作为2016年全球政治中最大的"黑天鹅事件",特朗普的当选和就任很可能引发美国外交历史上"非精英主义"的政策选择。特朗普的反全球化言论、对"一中政策"的挑战、威胁要对华发动"贸易战"以及效法上世纪80年代美国里根政府的狂热,必然给亚太地区安全局势带来新的不安和紧张。但可以肯定的是,特朗普政府的亚洲政策将会既推出变革、又会保持必要的连续性。特朗普政府究竟执行什么样的中国政策,将会决定其亚洲政策的走向。应对特朗普冲击,最重要的是避免在经济与安全两个领域同时出现高烈度的中美对抗。

The Trump Administration will be taking office soon. Both the world and the Asia-Pacific region are mired in a rare sense of strategic insecurity. Given Mr.Trump's mercurial rhetoric on anti- globalization,non- binding One- China policy,menace to launch trade war with China,and even asking for greatly increased nuclear arsenal in the U. S.,quite few people will contend that he could present more consistency of the U. S. policies in the region. What will be Trump's choice of Asian policy as well as China policy,and how his new choice would cost the region for its stability and prosperity? This paper primarily explores the Trump Impact to the region,likely emerging from his winning of presidential election in 2016 as the biggest 'black swan',and argues there would be some parallel between shift and continuity with regard to Mr.Trump's Asian policy. The paper warns alarmingly that Both China and the U. S.should avoid the worst case scenario of high- intensity clashes between Beijing and Washington simultaneously at the fore of security and economy.