从有限包容理论看中国—东盟关系的经济依赖与安全疑虑

Analyzing Economic Independence and Security Concern in Sino-ASEAN Relations from “Limited Accommodation Theory”Perspective

中国—东盟关系经历25年的正式交往,建立了紧密的经济联系,取得巨大的经贸成就,但也存在许多不确定因素和尚未实现的战略诉求。近年来随着双方的实力差距不断加大和受域外国家介入的南海争端干扰,中国—东盟关系在高端政治领域的发展滞缓,东盟对中国的安全疑虑不断增强。本文以包容理论分析中国—东盟关系中东盟"经济上依靠中国,安全上依靠美国"二元关系格局的形成原因,依据国际关系中既有权力对崛起权力的一般包容规律解释中国为何在经济领域获得东盟的积极包容,在安全领域始终无法取得实质性包容进展。以包容理论中物理能力、身份认知、目标行为体的内部决策机制维度解释促进中国—东盟经济包容的原因和双方历史纠纷、地缘基础、南海争端等变量对安全包容的负面影响,认为中国因改革开放后准确把握时机、审慎推动合作的低姿态获得东盟在经济领域的包容与信任,但随实力增长而趋于激进的行为使东盟加深中国进攻性意象的认知,加之域外国家介入、亚太地缘政治风险,要求中国应在追求大国权力地位的全包容进程中继续坚持战略审慎的心态与行为。

China-ASEAN relations have experienced 25 years of formal contacts,which established close economic relations and great trade achievements,but there are lots of uncertain factors and uncompleted strategic demands. In recent years the expanding power gap and the outside power's intervention in the South China Sea dispute make China- ASEAN relations develop slowly in high- politic and cause the security worry. This paper analyzes why ASEAN relies on China in the economy and relies on US in the security business by accommodation theory,especially why China can't get material accommodation in security business from ASEAN while it gets active accommodation in the economy. Physical security,identity security,and domestic political imperatives are three dimensions to explain how the economic accommodation realizes and how historical disputes,geographical basis and the South China Sea disputes affect security accommodation negatively,which is a limited accommodation. Since reform and opening up,China has promoted the cooperation with ASEAN cautiously and kept a low profile,which makes ASEAN trust and accommodate China's economic demands. But as power rising,China's behavior radicalization intensified the aggressive image in ASEAN perception. With outside powers and the geopolitics risks in Asia-Pacific,China should insist on strategy prudence to pursue the accommodation for great power status.