新兴经济体资本外逃影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors of the Capital Flight of Emerging Economies

选取1981~2015年62个新兴经济体作为样本,测算资本外逃规模,并基于所测算的资本外逃数据建立面板数据固定效应模型。研究发现,本币币值变动率、政府公共债务、本国存款利率、政治风险因素对新兴经济体资本外逃影响显著。考虑到资本外逃具有一定惯性,为增强结果的可靠性,使用动态模型进行验证,其中动态面板模型选用两步系统GMM法进行回归分析,发现两种方法的分析结果具有一致性。并据此结果为新兴经济体提出政策建议,以防范资本集中大规模外逃,促进经济稳定增长。

By choosing 62 emerging economies from 1981 to 2015 as research samples, the paper calculates the scale of capital flight, and based on the calculated data, a panel data fixed effects model is constructed. The Study shows that the change rate of currency value, government public debts, deposit rate of a country, and political risks have significant influences on the capital flight of the emerging economies. Taking the inertia of capital flight into consideration, a dynamic mode] is used to test the results to enhance the credibility of the results, among which two - step systemy GMM is chosen to make regression analysis as the dynamic panel data model. The results of the two methods are in well consistent with each other. Based on the results, policy recommen- dations are put forward for the emerging economics to prevent massive capital flight and promote stable economic growth .