货币政策与利率下行冲击下的金融市场主体风险分析

The Financial Risk of Monetary-Easing Policy and Downwards Interest Rate Shocks

本文以风险承担机制的微观基础为出发点,从事实分析过渡到实证扩展,从银行系统扩展到企业部门,从国际视角聚焦到国内问题,试图对该领域的研究新动态进行总结与归纳。研究表明:在宽松的货币环境下,全球银行业的信贷风险整体处于较高水平,无论是高收入国家还是低收入国家均表现出这样的特征;中国商业银行资产质量明显下降的同时,还出现了收益与风险的不对称特征;中国上市企业长期与短期的偿债能力明显下降,且财务风险与经营风险也在不断加剧。实证检验表明,宏观货币政策会影响市场主体的风险承担行为,且宽松货币政策持续时间越长,市场主体越会选择承担更多的风险。本文旨在加深人们对货币政策与金融稳定关系的再认识,以期为中国未来货币政策的制定提供一定的思路。

This paper studies the financial risk of easing monetary policy shocks form the perspective of microeconomic based risk bearing mechanism and summarizes relevant studies. This paper concludes that the credit risk of the global banking industry is high under loose monetary policies no matter in developed or developing countries; The asset quality of Chinese banks deteriorates and the risk and the return does not match; the solvency of China＇s listed companies in long and short term debts deteriorates and their financial risk and operational risk increase. Empirical studies show that monetary policy could affect the risk-taking behaviors of economic agents. The longer the loose monetary policy, the more risk economic agents bear. This paper intends to help rethink the view of the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability so that to better conduct monetary policy in China.