货币政策的债券市场传导机制——对利率的预期渠道

Monetary Policy Conduction Mechanism through Bond Market:Via the Expectation of Interest Rate

从对利率预期的角度探讨债券市场在货币政策传导到实体经济过程中的作用十分重要,将该传导机制细分为两个阶段:货币政策对债券市场的影响和债券市场对实体经济的影响,经理论建模和实证发现:两阶段的传导都非常有效,货币政策的债券市场传导机制确实存在。将两阶段结合起来看债券市场的传导效果,发现存贷款基准利率、法定存款准备金率及公开市场操作利率等货币政策工具能够对经济增长和通胀水平产生显著影响。实证结果还表明:在货币政策的实施过程中应当充分挖掘收益率曲线中包含的信息;央行的货币政策遵循了逆周期的原则,很好地熨平了经济的异常波动;应当提高货币政策体制的可信度和透明度,形成稳定的长期利率目标。

We discuss the function of bond market in the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy from the perspective of expectation. First of all, we divide the transmission mechanism into two stages： one stage for the effect of monetary policy on bond market; the other stage for the effect of bond market on the real economy. It＇s found that transmission in both stages is effective and there truly exists such a mechanism in the theoretical modeling and empirical research of this paper. Combining both stages together to detect the effectiveness of bond market in the transmission, we will discover monetary policy tools such as deposit and lending benchmark rate, reserve requirement ratio and open market operation rate significantly affect the economy growth and inflation rate. This paper also tells us followings in the empirical results. Information in the yield curve should be extracted when the monetary policy is implemented. The monetary policy of PBC acts counter-cyclically, which alleviates the unusual fluctuation of economy. To form a steady long term rate target, we should make the monetary policy system more credible and transparent.