新疆地区农村正规金融与非正规金融供需影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of Rural Formal Financial and Rural Informal Financial Supply and Demand in Xinjiang

基于新疆农户家庭微观调研数据,构建四元Probit联立方程模型,并运用GHK模拟估计法对农村正规金融和非正规金融供需影响因素进行了有效识别,估计出影响因素对两类农村金融供给和需求的影响效应,发现农村正规金融机构和非正规金融组织存在显著的互补关系,并对估计结果进行了稳健性检验,结果表明模型估计结果稳健。研究发现:(1)对农村正规金融需求而言,户主受教育水平、家庭生产性固定资产总值等的影响为负,户主是否汉族、是否拥有技能等的影响为正;(2)对农村正规金融供给而言,居住地距农村正规金融机构距离的影响为负,非农收入比重、家庭纯收入等的影响为正;(3)对农村非正规金融需求而言,家中劳动力人数和生产经营投资的影响为负,户主是否汉族、家庭生活消费支出等的影响为正;(4)对农村非正规金融供给而言,是否处于南疆的影响为负,家庭纯收入、家庭获取礼金和获赠所得总额等的影响为正。

Based on the micro survey data of farmers in Xinjiang, by constructing the quadri-variate probit simultaneous equation model and using Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane simulator estimation method, this paper effectively identifies the influencing factors of rural formal financial and rural informal financial supply and demand, estimates the impact of factors on the two types of rural financial supply and demand. At the same time, we find that there is a significant complementary relationship between rural formal financial institutions and informal financial organizations, and the robustness of the estimated results is tested, and the results show that the estimated results are robust. The empirical research result find： （1） For rural formal financial demand, householder＇s education level, productive fixed assets have negative effect, whether householder is Han, householdeYs skills and other factors have positve effect;（2）For rural formal financial supply, the distance from the residence to rural formal financial institutions has negative effect, non farm income share, family net income and other factors have positve effect; （3）For rural informal financial demand, number of labor and production and management investment have negative effect, whether householder is Han, household consumption expenditure and other factors have positve effect; （4）For rural informal financial supply, whether living in the south of Xinjiang has negative effect, family net income, gifts and receive income and other factors have negative effect.