浙江省入境旅游与区域经济增长相关性的实证研究

Empirical study on correlation between inbound tourism and regional economic growth in Zhejiang Province

采用经典的计量经济检验方法,对浙江省1993—2013年入境旅游的统计数据进行检验分析,探究入境旅游与经济增长的关系。结果表明:浙江省入境旅游与经济增长存在长期稳定的均衡关系;浙江省入境旅游外汇收入每增加1个百分点,会促进其生产总值增长0.74个百分点;浙江省入境旅游是其经济增长的格兰杰原因,但其经济增长并不是其入境旅游发展的格兰杰原因,两者存在单向因果关系;当短期波动偏离了长期均衡时,系统就会以0.466170的修正力度将其从非均衡状态修正到均衡状态。

To study the correlation between the inbound tourism and the regional economic growth in Zhejiang Province,this paper uses classical measurement methods to analyze the relative statistic data of inbound tourism from 1993 to2013 in Zhejiang Province. The results are the following: The inbound tourism and the local economic growth of Zhejiang Province has a long-term stable equilibrium relationship; the each increasing 1% of IR can promote the GDP of Zhejiang Province to increase by 0. 74%; the inbound tourism is the granger reason of the regional economic growth,and there is a one-way causal relation between them; when the short-term volatility deviates from the long-term equilibrium,the system will be at 0. 466170 to adjust the non-equilibrium state back to the equilibrium state.