人口年龄结构、多元出口市场与比较优势演化

Population Age Structure,Diversified Export Target Market and Evolution of Comparative Advantage

本文实证分析了人口年龄结构与向非传统市场出口的关系,结果显示:一个地区人口老龄化进程越快,越有利于向G7国家及港澳台以外市场的出口增长,且在资本密集度较高的地区更为突出。我国的人口年龄结构变动促进了出口市场多元化,而向非传统市场的出口主要由资本品拉动,从而促使我国比较优势加速演进。本文启示是,要抓住一带一路建设契机,积极开展与沿线国家的产能与装备制造合作,进而使要素禀赋变化对产业结构升级的倒逼效应得到充分发挥。

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between population age structure and export to non-traditional market.The result shows that a faster course of population aging can be beneficial for the increase of export to G7 countries or markets other than Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan,and this effect can be more prominent in the areas with higher capital intensity.Thus it can be seen that the change in China's population age structure promotes the diversification of export market,while exporting to traditional market is mainly driven by capital goods and results in accelerating evolution of comparative advantage in China.The policy implications from this paper are that seizing the opportunity created by constructing the Belt and Road is of greater importance.China needs to positively develop the cooperation of production capacity and equipment manufacturing with countries along the Belt and Road,furthermore insuring the forcing effect which the change of factor endowment has on the upgrade of industrial structure can fully work.