安徽省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与评价

Comprehensive Analysis and Quantitative Estimation of Agricultural Vulnerability to Drought Disaster in Anhui Province

旱灾是影响安徽省农业特别是粮食生产可持续发展的重要制约因素。在相同致灾强度下,灾情会随灾害脆弱性的增强而加重,因此,研究农业旱灾脆弱性对安徽省防灾减灾和农业可持续发展具有特别重要意义。根据影响旱灾脆弱性的因素和指标体系选取的原则,选择了旱灾面积比、森林覆盖率、农村人均收入等9个指标,采用加权综合评价方法对各市旱灾脆弱性进行分析,并利用聚类分析方法进行旱灾脆弱性区划。结果表明,除合肥市、阜阳市、池州市、宿州市和黄山市5个市需要采取措施降低旱灾脆弱度外,安徽省总体上农业旱灾脆弱性较弱,有较强的抗旱承灾能力。

Agricultural drought has already been the important restriction factor for the sustainable development of agricultural economy, especially securing grain production in Anhui Province. The disastrous conditions are aggravated along with the enhanced vulnerability of disaster system under the consistent with the intensity of a disaster. So the research of agricuhural drought vulnerability in Anhui Province has a special significance on disaster prevention and agricultural sustainable development of agricultural economy. According to the factors affecting the drought vulnerability and the principle of index selection, vulnerability of agricultural drought in counties is estimated by the factors of the drought area ratio, forest coverage, the level of average rural income and so on in this article. Eventually based on the results of cluster analysis, Anhui municipalities are divided into 5 vulnerability zones of different levels with the tool of ArcGIS. Research results show that most of municipalities in Anhui, besides Hefei city, Fuyang city, Chizhou city, Suzhou city and Huangshan city are on the low vulnerability level and have a better drought disaster resistant capacity.